Rate Lock Advisory

Monday, September 25th

Monday’s bond market has opened up slightly with little to drive trading this morning. Stocks are showing losses of 1 point in the Dow and 20 points in the Nasdaq. The bond market is currently up 2/32 (2.24%), which should keep this morning’s mortgage rates close to Friday’s morning pricing.



30 yr - 2.24%







Mortgage Rate Trend

Trailing 90 Days - National Average

  • 30 Year Fixed
  • 15 Year Fixed
  • 5/1 ARM

Indexes Affecting Rate Lock




There is nothing of importance scheduled for release today. The rest of the week brings us the release of six monthly and quarterly economic reports for the markets to digest in addition to two Treasury auctions. None of the data is considered to be key, but several of the reports can directly affect mortgage pricing. There is at least one release set for each day except for today, so we can expect to see a fairly active week in the bond and mortgage markets.



New Home Sales

August's New Home Sales will start the week's activities at 10:00 AM ET tomorrow morning. The Commerce Department is expected to say that sales of newly constructed homes rose last month, indicating the new home portion of the housing sector strengthened a little. This report will likely not have a noticeable impact on mortgage rates unless it differs greatly from forecasts. It is the week's least important report in terms of potential impact on mortgage rates, partly because it covers only the small portion of all homes sales that last week's Existing Home Sales report did not.



Consumer Confidence Index (Conference Board)

September's Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) is also coming late tomorrow morning. This Conference Board index will give us a measurement of consumer willingness to spend. It is expected to show a decline in confidence from last month's reading, indicating that consumers were less optimistic about their own financial situations than last month. This means they are less likely to make a large purchase in the near future. That is favorable news for the bond market and mortgage rates because consumer spending fuels economic growth. Analysts are calling for a reading of approximately 119.4, down from August's 122.9 reading. The smaller the reading, the better the news for the bond market and mortgage rates.




Overall, Wednesday or Friday are likely to be the most active day for mortgage rates while Thursday or today should be the calmest. I am not expecting to see a big jump or decline in mortgage rates any day this week, but we should see them move a little most days, if not every day.

Float / Lock Recommendation

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now... This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.